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A diverse array of data contributed to this new dataset, including a 40-year global time series of fine-spatial-resolution Landsat images. Global One-Eighth Degree Urban Land Extent Projection and Base Year Grids by SSP Scenarios 2000–2100, which provides a set of global, spatially explicit urban land scenarios consistent with the 2000–2100 SSPs. SEDAC’s new spatial SSP datasets pertain to a range of population-related topics, including urbanization and density, and were developed with methodologies created by Bryan Jones of the City University of New York Institute for Demographic Research, and Brian O’Neil of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. “If a certain area flooded once per hundred years in the past and now it’s going to flood once per decade, and you know that population is growing rapidly because people tend to like to live along rivers or the coast, then the spatial SSP datasets will give you a better, more realistic sense of exposed populations,” de Sherbinin said.
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However, spatial data products like those from SEDAC that portray how populations may develop over time in various scenarios could help environmental researchers, demographers, state and local decision-makers, and others identify the populations at risk from climate change impacts. “Just knowing that the future population of country X or Y will be so many millions of people based on a SSP doesn’t tell you much,” he said.
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Each of these patterns of socioeconomic development has implications for the spatial allocation of populations.”Īccording to de Sherbinin, climate change impact and vulnerability studies have typically not provided much detail about how populations might be impacted by the effects of climate change. “Some scenarios suggest high levels of urbanization and more intensive fossil fuel use, while others suggest lower urbanization and maybe lower fossil fuel use. “What’s new or unique about these datasets is that they’re focused on the spatial aspect,” said Dr. As part of its mission to synthesize Earth science and socioeconomic data and information in ways useful to a wide range of decision makers and applied science users, SEDAC archives, manages, and distributes NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System ( EOSDIS) socioeconomic and Earth science data, resources, and tools. SEDAC is operated by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network ( CIESIN), a unit of the Earth Institute at Columbia University based at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York. Recently, NASA’s Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center ( SEDAC), released a collection of datasets offering global, spatial population and urban land projections based on the five SSPs. Established over the last several years in a joint community effort, the five SSPs describe plausible global development patterns leading to different situations for mitigating and adapting to climate change.
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To aid their analyses, the members of this research community created a set of five scenarios (not unlike the hypothetical scenarios described above) known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways These are the types of questions that members of the climate change research community ask themselves as they perform analyses of future climate impacts, the populations and infrastructure that might be vulnerable to them, and strategies for adaption and mitigation. Now, with these two imaginary worlds in your mind, ask yourself: How might the worlds in these two futures differ in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and population density in urban and rural areas? At the same time, the push for economic and social development leads to intensive fossil fuel use and the global economy grows, but global population peaks and then declines. There is strong investment in health and education, and ecological problems like air pollution are successfully managed at the local and regional levels.
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Next, imagine a second, alternative future in which the world has placed its faith in competitive markets and innovation, resulting in rapid technological progress and development. Imagine a future wherein global and national institutions have achieved a portion of their sustainable development goals the health of Earth’s ecological systems is much improved, although some degradation continues the world consumes 25 percent less fossil fuel and global population growth levels off in 2050, but persistent income inequality continues, leaving some low-income people vulnerable to societal and environmental change. Grids Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Revision 01, dataset, whichĬonsists of global urban, rural, and total population data for the base yearĢ000, and population projections at ten-year intervals for 2010-2100. Graphic shows the Global One-Eighth Degree Population Base Year and Projection